There we were thinking player transfer sagas involving Real Madrid were long and drawn out, with an eerie sense of inevitability.
After months of speculation, Xabi Alonso has finally confirmed that he will be stepping down as Bayer Leverkusen coach at the end of the season.
Madrid have been in talks with representatives of their former midfielder about him replacing the great Carlo Ancelotti, who is set to leave the club in the coming weeks, with the Brazil national team his most likely destination.
The Spanish side are understandably impressed by Alonso’s impact in Germany, where he led Leverkusen to their first ever Bundesliga title during a historic 2023-24 domestic campaign that was the 43-year-old’s first full season in management.
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There is justifiable excitement for what Alonso could achieve with a fresh crop of game-breaking attacking players in Madrid, but while the move back to the Bernabeu feels likely and almost natural — fuelled by the romanticism of a great player returning to one of his most fondly remember former clubs — things may not be so seamless on the pitch.
Madrid have struggled for balance all season, getting picked apart by opponents with sufficiently proficient build-up to play through their top-heavy side. Where Ancelotti promoted positional freedom and fluidity in attack, trusting that offensive firepower could mask the team’s defensive issues, Alonso leans much more heavily towards rigorous organisation, quick counter-pressing and rehearsed patterns to move the ball forward with precision and structure in mind.
Alonso is a proven ceiling-raiser, but whether Madrid are in a state that would allow him to work his magic again there — or would be willing to adapt to his more stringent ways — is the question that could define a crucial juncture in the club’s modern era…
What Alonso achieved at Leverkusen is difficult to understate, taking a team who were in disarray a couple of months into the 2022-23 season — in 17th place in the 18-club Bundesliga, with just one win in their first eight league games — to an invincible domestic season, a cup win and a European final in little more than 18 months.
Looking at Leverkusen’s expected goals (xG) figure across a 10-game rolling average helps to illustrate the club’s journey under the 43-year-old Spaniard.
His arrival led to an instant improvement in terms of the quantity of chances they conceded, illustrated by the downward trend of the red line in the graphic below, as he focused on solidity and recovery across his first months in charge.
The following summer saw key arrivals; creative, flying full-back Alejandro Grimaldo allowed Alonso to implement his wing-back system, midfielder Granit Xhaka brought high quality in possession to facilitate pass-heavy build-up, and striker Victor Boniface added real firepower in the form of his relentless running, shooting and unbridled flair.
It led to an explosion, as Leverkusen began to consistently create more chances than they allowed, scoring two or more goals in each of their opening 15 games of the 2023-24 season, on the way to becoming the runaway and undefeated German champions.
Things have been trickier in 2024-25 — the graph shows how their offensive efficiency has dropped in the second half of the season — but despite disappointing cup exits at home and in Europe, Alonso’s side have still only lost two of their 32 Bundesliga matches. Win their final two games and they would have the second-highest points total in the club’s 120-year history, only trailing that of last season.
It might appear to be a slump relative to previous form, but the standards that were set a year ago were never going to be replicated.
Leverkusen’s historic invincible campaign (their only loss in 53 games came in its penultimate match — the Europa League final against Atalanta of Italy) has already filled plenty of column inches, but for those who need a refresher, Alonso’s 3-4-2-1 system was grounded in considered build-up play and neat central progression, and potent width in the shape of wing-backs Grimaldo and Jeremie Frimpong.
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Fast forward to the present day and a glance at Leverkusen’s passing network from last month’s 1-0 away win against Heidenheim shows that such a system is still proving popular for Alonso.
A foundational back three with wing-backs high and wide; the metronomic Xhaka dictating the tempo from the base of a box midfield; dual No 10s in the half-spaces — it’s Amine Adli and Nathan Tella below, but this pairing typically included the majestic but then injured Florian Wirtz — and a lone striker spearheading the attack.
Hang it in Madrid’s Museo del Prado — Alonso’s team setup continues to be a work of art.
Despite these tried-and-tested patterns, Leverkusen have faced issues when coming up against aggressive, man-to-man pressing systems. That game against Heidenheim, where they nicked the only goal in the 91st minute, was characterised by moments of panic in possession from Alonso’s side, who were rattled by the high physicality of their underdog hosts.
Both Grimaldo and centre-back Jonathan Tah fluffed their duels in the build-up to Heidenheim’s second big chance of the game on 18 minutes, before they were forced to go long and turnover possession from the resultant goal kick, penned in by an adventurous pressing scheme.
It’s how Leverkusen succumbed to Atalanta in that Europa League final last May, before seeing their 35-game unbeaten streak in the Bundesliga come to an end against RB Leipzig in August. Both those teams backed their energy and duel-winning capabilities in the press to smother Leverkusen’s quick-passing, positional game at source.
Knowing his boys had evolved from the hunters to the hunted, Alonso has needed to add a layer of versatility, with a greater variation in his formations this season, which has included starting with a back four in a healthy smattering of games.
The 3-4-2-1 has been the prevailing setup he has begun matches with during his time in Germany, but it would be wrong to suggest he has been dogmatically attached to such a system — particularly this season, as Leverkusen’s attacking fluency has stuttered at times.
It shows that Alonso should not be pigeon-holed as a manager who is staunchly dedicated to playing with a back three.
During his time in charge of Real Sociedad’s B team, the job he left for Leverkusen, he would regularly play with a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 that was underpinned by principles that his current side have since shown — focused on possession dominance, with progression through central areas and a fierce intensity to counter-press when they lose the ball.
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The best coaches have the pragmatism to adapt to the strengths of the squad they have and it is clear that Alonso has built a winning Leverkusen team that maximises the attributes of his players.
With the riches that he stands to inherit in Madrid, building a coherent structure will arguably be his biggest challenge. A centre-back, central midfielder and left-back are the three positions that arguably most need strengthening, with the seemingly impending arrival of Trent Alexander-Arnold from Liverpool bolstering options on the opposite flank.
It looks likely that Alonso would have all the right notes by the end of the summer transfer window, but his job will be to place them in the right order to compose Madrid’s next footballing symphony.
Defensive issues have been at the core of Madrid’s inconsistencies this season.
An average of 1.1 expected goals (xG) conceded per 90 minutes was the fifth-best defensive record in La Liga this season going into the weekend’s fixtures, and while they are often able to rely on individual magic from key attacking players to overwhelm the opposition, giving up chances worthy of more than a goal every game does not make for impressive reading.
Madrid’s lack of defensive intensity means their opponents can progress upfield with little fear at times, knowing that Ancelotti’s forward line does not provide their team-mates the protection that comes with pressing from the front.
In this example against Arsenal in the first leg of last month’s Champions League quarter-final, Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior do little more than watch the action unfold as Myles Lewis-Skelly receives the ball between them in his own half — with Madrid’s passive 4-4-2 doing little to disrupt the build-up.
Lewis-Skelly is able to stride forward before finding Martin Odegaard in the right half-space, who is soon descending upon Madrid’s defensive line. Arsenal have gone from back to front in two easy passes.
There was another alarming example in a catastrophic 4-0 home defeat to Barcelona in October. Marc Casado is able to drop from midfield and waltz past the Madrid front two, before threading a pass through to Robert Lewandowski, who scores.
Alonso does not fall into the same tactical camp.
Leverkusen’s strong positional principles and intelligent rest defence mean they are often well set up to squeeze the pitch and regain the ball high up the pitch with aggressive counter-pressing whenever they cede possession.
Their 5.2 possessions won in the attacking third is the highest average in the Bundesliga in 2024-25, just as their figure was last season. A defensive metric is also an attacking ploy, with Alonso looking to maximise the transitional moments as a tool to score goals — or at the very least, retain territorial dominance.
By contrast, Madrid’s volume of high regains sits at 3.7 per 90 — eighth-best in La Liga this season.
Compare some of the pressing efforts we’ve seen from Vinicius Jr and Mbappe with the kind of intensity shown below from Leverkusen and it’s clear Alonso would have work to do if he wanted to transpose his Leverkusen philosophy onto a different kind of side.
The Tella goal below against Borussia Dortmund in January came just 24 seconds after the opening kick-off, with Leverkusen going man-for-man against the home side’s deep build-up. It is an out-of-possession approach that requires every player to lock on, condense the space, and force the opposition into mistakes — with the rewards proving lucrative when things go to plan.
Alonso might not have had to handle a star-studded dressing room like that of Madrid so far in his young coaching career, but he has been in the very same environment during his playing days.
Winning domestic and continental trophies in England, Germany and Spain as a player with Liverpool, Bayern and Madrid instantly commands respect among those within a squad, and his invincible exploits as Leverkusen manager will have undoubtedly rippled through Europe.
Where concerns might arise is in Madrid’s ability to adjust to a tactically-intelligent, principle-based system. Casting your minds back to successful appointments at the Bernabeu in recent years, those who have brought the most silverware have predominantly fallen under the ‘pragmatic’ style of management.
Ancelotti is the epitome of a man-manager, able to empower his players to perform to their best of their ability without requiring too much tactical instruction.
“Our biggest strength is that he finds a way to let a lot of the boys play with freedom,” Madrid’s England midfielder Jude Bellingham said of Ancelotti last year. “That we’re so kind of off the cuff. As a man as well, he fills you with calmness and confidence.”
Ancelotti and his squad celebrate winning the Champions League in 2024 (Mateusz Slodkowski/Getty Images)
A few years earlier, Zinedine Zidane won two La Liga titles and three Champions Leagues, but his strength was managing the talented egos of Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema and Gareth Bale without being overly wedded to an established style of play. Jose Mourinho did not quite enjoy the same success in the early 2010s, but his style was similarly pragmatic when it came to setting up his Madrid team.
Comparably, managers who were more ‘systems-based’ — including Rafael Benitez, Julen Lopetegui and Manuel Pellegrini — enjoyed less success in the Spanish capital and were quickly shown the door without a trophy to their name.
Therefore, Alonso would represent something of a gear change from Ancelotti if he were to succeed the Italian. Yes, he is a proven winner as a player and a manager, but it is likely he would place greater demands on a squad that, in truth, desperately needs improvements to their tactical structure.
Would such demands be warmly received by all those within the dressing room?
Alonso’s ideals have been played out to great effect during his three seasons with Leverkusen. If he were appointed by Madrid and able to have the same kind of influence at the Bernabeu, Madrid’s club president Florentino Perez would be confident of plenty of success.
(Top photos: Getty Images; design: Eamonn Dalton)